Betting the NFL over/under is the most simple of wagers: If the combined score is more than the listed number, the game plays 'over' the total, and if the combined score is less than the posted over/under, the game plays 'under'. Thing is, handicapping and wagering the over/under is anything but easy. Divisional Round Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns: UNDER 57 It’s easy to see why 80 percent of money and 97 percent of tickets are on the OVER.
Are you the type of gambler who bets the over/under each week during the 17-week NFL season? Well then, this article will help you increase your chances to win the over/under bet every week!
While there isn’t a single strategy out there that guarantees a win for the over/under, you can consider a few significant factors that can at least help tilt the odds in your direction.
So, if you bet the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to cover the over/under threshold, but Patrick Mahomes gets hurt and is ruled out for the rest of the game, you obviously can’t help it if the Chiefs’ offense stagnates.
This isn’t what this article is about. Instead, it covers five factors that can help you maximize your odds to win your over/under wager at the NFL betting sites. Read on to discover more.
1. Who’s Playing?
Okay, so first off, take a look at the over/under for the week and consider who is playing and whether they have a shot to cover the over/under.
Let’s look at what happened during Week 1 of the NFL 2020 season and why a couple of games turned out the way they did.
Good examples are the Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants.
- The Hawks and Falcons had an over/under of 49.
- And the Steelers and Giants had an over/under of 47.4.
These two matchups tell us a lot, considering you had two stellar offenses going head to head with the Falcons and Seahawks. These were offenses that scored 23.8 and 25.1 points, respectively, per game in 2019. Their defenses also allowed roughly 24.9 points per game.
Chances are with such high-powered offenses, the Seahawks and Falcons would easily cover the over/under. The score ended up being 38-25.
The opposite was said about the Steelers and Giants. While the Steelers have the potential for a hot offense, they scored just 26 points in Ben Roethlisberger’s return.
Predictably, they had to work out a few kinks in Ben’s game and the running game.
But the Steelers boast a fantastic defense against a meager Giants’ offense that’s learning a new system.
Chances are, the Giants would have a hard time “helping” the Steelers cover the over/under of 47.5. The total number of points scored between the two teams sat at 42. It was close, but not as close as the final score indicated, considering garbage time allowed for a closer result.
But the Steelers’ defense, like others in Week 1, was too good for the opposing offense. The Giants’ offensive line was young, inexperienced, and often overwhelmed by Pittsburgh’s blitz packages. Quarterback Daniel Jones is still working on his game, and no one from the Giants’ skill units were 100% healthy in 2019.
One big surprise in Week 1 came in the New England vs. Miami game, where I believed the teams could cover the over/under of 43 points. They finished 10 points shy.
I forgot something I shouldn’t have, and neither should you: the Patriot Way. The New England defense was so decimated by free agency and opt-outs that I was certain they’d at least struggle in Week 1. But head coach Bill Belichick had his Pats prepared.
They ravaged quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for 3 interceptions and held the Dolphins to just 11 points, while the Cam Newton-led offense scored enough to beat Miami by 10. That said, always assume a strength from the previous season carries into next year until it’s proven otherwise, just as Belichick and the Patriots showed us.
2. Scoring Offenses
The perfect game to point to here was the one that opened up the season: the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Houston Texans. You saw two high-scoring offenses going at it. And while it was a blowout over the first three quarters of the game, the Texans barely scored enough to cover the over/under.
One can make the argument that it was Harrison Butker and the Chiefs’ prompt special teams play that really covered the over/under in this one.
Either way, you knew both offenses would score in this one, even if Houston’s scores didn’t arrive until garbage time. Deshaun Watson and company are just too talented to lay an egg.
Let’s look at another defensive game that finished under, one that featured two offenses with spotty quarterback play in the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. As we expected, it was an ugly contest, even in light of the Chargers owning the league’s prettiest uniforms.
With that said, every NFL fan knew this was going to feature barely any offense and was bound to finish under its 44-point over/under projection. The end result featured just 29 points of scoring.
While both the Chargers and Bengals will feature strong offenses at some point in 2020, it wasn’t happening in Week 1.
You were bound to be treated to a game that featured little to no scoring and a lot of offensive miscues. So, look at the over/under and the strength of the opposing offenses. Does it look like a good match to ace the over, or are they more likely to finish several points under?
3. Total Offenses
Like points scored, nothing is a better indicator of how many points a team is likely to score without its total offense number. Of course, this number can be misleading, as was the case of the 2019 Oakland Raiders.
In 2019, the Raiders ranked 11th in total offense but scored a meager 19.6 points per game. But more often than not, total offense gives you an idea of what to expect two opponents to score. There are two numbers you should look at here. The first is the total offense of either the previous season or the current season, depending on how far into the current season we’re in. I like to start looking at current season totals in October.
The second number to look at, and one that many of us ignore, is total offense between two opponents over the previous or current season, if applicable. In AFC versus NFC matchups, you can ignore this. But this number is extremely important in interdivisional matchups.
While the Browns put up a star-studded show against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 4 of 2019, the teams headed in opposite directions since that showdown. Cleveland’s offense became more than anemic. Baltimore’s, well, the class of the league.
In other words, the Browns became the Browns, and the Ravens became the Ravens. In the second matchup of 2019, the discrepancy sat in full display as Lamar Jackson became one of the faces of the league while Cleveland became the same old Browns in a 31-15 blowout and the Browns’ offense never got going.
Fast-forward to 2020 and you know the discrepancy in total offense between the two teams. Most of us were expecting the teams to barely grace the over. I actually projected Baltimore to win this thing 38-13, so yeah, a garbage-time score by the Browns was expected, which would have graded the 48.5-point over/under.
But we also knew the Browns’ offense had a hard time moving the ball at multiple points during the 2019 season, including against Baltimore in Week 16 when the teams combined for 46 points. It came as no surprise to see the Ravens stuff the Browns’ offense while lighting up the scoreboard yet again en route to their 38-6 win. And for the team that finished second in total offense and first in scoring, the result was obvious.
4. Strengths of Opposing Defenses
A great example here comprised the Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans. Both teams featured excellent defenses and it showed.
While the over/under would’ve been threatened (as I projected) had it not been for Stephen Gostkowski leaving 10 points on the field, this over/under was a low 41 points on September 9th.
This definitely meant to expect a low-scoring affair and it didn’t disappoint, with the 16-14 finish when Gostkowski converted his last field goal attempt of the evening.
When two solid defenses go head to head like what you saw with Denver and Tennessee, the under is almost a given unless, of course, the line looks to be favorable as it was in the Broncos-Titans game with such a low threshold.
Either way, in games featuring two defensive powerhouses, the key is to almost always bet the under.
5. Trash Is Treasure or Fool’s Gold
This one can often lead a sure under to a game that will finish with covering the over. And look no further than the Bills-Jets game, which sat at a projected 39.5-point over/under heading into Week 1.
Betting Over Under Nfl Draft
However, once the Bills built their comfortable 27-10 lead, the Jets stormed back in garbage time to make the game a respectable 27-17. And this is a trap for many of us. Plus, it’s hit or miss.
The key point here is the fact that garbage time can always make or break a game, and it’s all about whether you think a team will build enough of a lead to back off and allow the other team to score.
But it also comes down to how strong the opposing offense is. Both the Browns and Jets feature among the league’s worst offenses.
And you knew both games were going to come down to garbage time.
So, before you place any bet on the over/under, think for a second whether garbage time will affect the outcome. If you do, betting the over is a safer bet. If not, bet the under.
Of course, you can’t guarantee a win. And hardly any of us saw the Jets marching 86 yards down the field and acing the over with 54 seconds left in the game. We also thought, bad as the Browns are, their offense would at least show a pulse greater than 6 points.
Oh, I can guarantee this—it’ll keep you on the edge of your seat.
Conclusion
The unfortunate truth about the over/under is that it’s far less predictable than the spread.
I’m personally much better with projecting the spread than the over/under considering the complexity of the factors involved here.
You especially need to be worried about that final point and how time will always make or break the spread.
Yes, how the teams match up in terms of offense and defense are a huge help, as well as their history playing against one another. But the primary factor in this one rests with how time will affect the outcome.
What are some factors you consider when betting the over/under at online sportsbooks? Tell us in the comments.
- Where to Bet:
How to read Super Bowl 55 Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs wil meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 7, 2021.
The Chiefs opened as -3.5 betting favorites while the Buccaneers are 3.5 underdogs.
After early wagers came in, most operators are holding Kansas City -3 (-120).
If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100).
The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100.
The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points.
How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to entice bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
The favorite is always listed with a minus (-) sign before the point-spread while the underdog is labeled with a plus (+) label.
Ex. Favorite -10, Underdog +10
On the VegasInsider.com odds page, there is another number associated with the favorite and its listed as -10. This number is simply defined as “vig” or what many in the sports betting industry call vigorish. Another common term is called “juice” and it’s technically the price the bettor has to pay on a straight wager.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice)
Ex. Bet $100 to win $90.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08, -12, -15 and -20. The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NFL bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NFL Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NFL Open Line
One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NFL or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NFL Line
The VegasInsider.com Consensus NFL Line is just as important as the Open Line and also a key resource on odds platform. The Consensus column could be called a “Median Line” since it shows the most consistent number provided by the sportsbooks on VegasInsider.com. The consensus line will be the same as the open line but once the wagers start coming in, this number is often different than the openers.
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?
We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super Bowl is correctly selecting a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. A bettor will have his wagered money tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. In the case of the Super Bowl, you’re not a winner or loser until you see zeros on the clock in the final game.
Most sportsbooks offer different ways to read to Super Bowl Odds. In the fractional NFL Futures Odds format below, you simply take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered.
Ex. Green Bay (8/1) to win the Super Bowl
The Packers are listed as an 8/1 betting choice to win the Super Bowl. If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 ÷ 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100).
The American Format would see Green Bay listed at +800 and for the Decimal Format, the Packers would be 9.00.
Betting Over Under Wins Nfl
If you are in a state where online betting is legal, we encourage you to check out our sportsbook directory to find the most trustworthy and reputable sites and mobile apps to place your Super Bowl bets.